A Story of 0
In a state of perpetual lockdown, Falluja is far more secure today than it was before the November invasion, and safer than nearby Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, the heartland of the Sunni Arab insurgency. In the elections in January, when only 2 percent of Anbar's eligible voters went to the polls, a reasonably secure Falluja was a singular bright spot, with about a third of eligible voters taking part. The city had 30,000 residents then. -- NY Times, July 15 2005, 8 Months After U.S.-Led Siege, Insurgents Rise Again in Falluja
Regaining control of Falluja from the American and Iraqi forces is a critical goal for the insurgency, American military commanders here say. For much of last year, this city of 300,000 was the largest haven in Iraq for the guerrillas, suspected of being the source of suicide car bombs in Baghdad and videos showing the beheadings of foreigners. -- NY Times, July 15 2005, 8 Months After U.S.-Led Siege, Insurgents Rise Again in Falluja
Regaining control of Falluja from the American and Iraqi forces is a critical goal for the insurgency, American military commanders here say. For much of last year, this city of 300,000 was the largest haven in Iraq for the guerrillas, suspected of being the source of suicide car bombs in Baghdad and videos showing the beheadings of foreigners. -- NY Times, July 15 2005, 8 Months After U.S.-Led Siege, Insurgents Rise Again in Falluja
posted by awol | 10:06 AM
6 Comments:
7th Assertion
The law of large and small numbers is the same. The difference is only quantitative.
--Daniil Kharms, The Eleven Assertions of Daniil Ivanovich Kharms, March 18, 1930
"On two occasions I have been asked [by members of Parliament], 'Pray, Mr.
Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers
come out?' I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of
ideas that could provoke such a question." -- Charles Babbage
glad you noticed some new activity on the blog &y!
"Evidence suggests that the mortality rate was higher across Iraq after the war than before, even excluding Falluja. We estimate that there were 98 000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000–194 000) during the post-war period in the 97% of Iraq represented by all the clusters except Falluja. In our Falluja sample, we recorded 53 deaths when only 1·4 were expected under the national pre-war rate. This indicates a point estimate of about 200 000 excess deaths in the 3% of Iraq represented by this cluster. However, the uncertainty in this value is substantial and implies additional deaths above those measured in the rest of the country."
--Roberts et al., "Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey," The Lancet 364:1857-1864 (2004)
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I'd never bothered to read The Lancet study. "A Story of 0" put me on the trail. This PDF may work for you, if you're interested. (I got "the real" link at Elsevier publishing without sneaking around thanks to my university's online subscription.)
Anyway, I never noticed when reading the news reports that the "100,000 excess deaths" estimate excluded data from Falluja. The authors' discussion of why Falluja was an outlier, how difficult it was to conduct their survey there, etc. is worth reading--especially if "A Story of 0" raised your eyebrow(s). Check out authors' Figure 2, for example.
awol, thanks for the note. Believe me, I notice all. I was worried for awhile there that my half-assed "Toto" post had killed the blog entirely. Then the post-Toto flurry left me kinda speechless. Not to mention the demands of having about 1.5 months left to finish both my research and my dissertation (funding-imposed deadline) and the foolish decision I made to start my own blog.
Thanks for the link. I haven't read The Lancet study either. For some reason I can't access PDF files from my home, but I'll check it out tomorrow when I'll be on a university system myself.
Sounds like you've now finished the dissertation, unless I'm misinterpreting the 1.5 in your comment. If so, congratulations!
awol
Oh no. Not anywhere near finished. I'm pretty screwed. I have experiments in progress and a backlog of analysis. I'm writing everything I can now (procedures, literature survey, early phases of the work, etc.), but it's impossible to write too much with data still outstanding.
In fairness, I only have to be done with the testing by the end of August (when DARPA--or evil monster overlords--cut my advisor out of the project he's been working on and he finds himself with no money to pay for my experiments). I can finish up the writing in early Sept. (with no stipend beyond the charity my advisor will offer me and I plan to refuse). But the department wont let me use the equipment once the grant dies.
Sleep beckons.
Ah.....this is where the author chose to author!
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